Decor

England on course for fifth Champions League spot

ByDale JohnsonFootball issues correspondent

Updated 19 minutes ago

The league phases of all three European competitions are over and we are starting to get a clear picture of which countries could get an extra Champions League place next season.

The two nations which perform best across the three competitions this season will be handed European Performance Spots (EPS).

That means fifth place in the Premier League table could go from being a Europa League place to a ticket into the Champions League – Newcastle benefited this way last season.

But will an English club get that reward again?

How do European Performance Spots work?

To work out who are the successful nations, Uefa takes into consideration the overall performance of clubs in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.

It creates an average by taking the total coefficient score and dividing it by the number of clubs each league has in European competition. The top two in the table get an extra place in the Champions League.

Each win – regardless of the competition – is worth two coefficient points, with a draw worth one.

The key differential is in bonus points awarded based on clubs' finishing positions in the league phase and knockout rounds, as these are much higher in the Champions League.

By way of an example, the teams that finish 25th-36th in the Champions League got six bonus points – even though they were eliminated.

Yet the team who finished top of the Conference League table – Strasbourg – received just four points.

This means it is almost certain that one of the top European leagues will get the extra places each season as they have more clubs in the Champions League.

With all bonus points now dished out, the table is taking shape.

What does the table look like?

Here's what it means after the end of the first stage of the Champions League and the Europa League this week.

ENGLAND

England is the only country to still have all teams active – and there are nine of them.

It will be very hard for England to throw it away after bagging 72.50 bonus points from the Champions League final placings.

But nothing should be completely taken for granted, as England seemed destined to get an EPS slot in 2023-24 only to suffer a terrible set of results in the quarter-finals.

While it might seem positive that all but two English clubs made it directly through to the round of 16, there is a twist.

The rival leagues have multiple teams in the knockout play-off rounds, and those clubs can score points by winning those two-leg ties and pick up a bonus for reaching the round of 16.

As a picture of how far England is ahead, Portuguese clubs are effectively 11 wins behind, for German sides it is 17 wins. Then for the Italian teams it is 19 victories and for the Spanish clubs 22.

PORTUGAL

Portugal did not seem to really stand a realistic chance of making the top two as soon as Santa Clara were knocked out out of the Conference League in the qualifying rounds.

Still, they carry on with four teams active but will need all to go very deep to have any chance.

Only Benfica can add some coefficient points in February so they are likely to drop down from second again.

GERMANY

Only Eintracht Frankfurt have been eliminated, so the Bundesliga is well placed to take an EPS slot alongside England.

Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Dortmund and Stuttgart could pick up more coefficient points in the play-off rounds.

SPAIN

With eight teams in Europe, Spain needed to have a strong campaign.

Chances were severely damaged by Villarreal's Champions League elimination. And Athletic Club followed them out of the competition on Wednesday, too.

While Spain have six teams still active, each win is worth less to the coefficient than those of their rivals for second place.

La Liga does have three teams in action in February: Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid and Celtic Vigo.

ITALY

Serie A had a slow start but remains in contention despite losing Napoli from the Champions League.

Atalanta, Bologna, Fiorentina, Inter Milan and Juventus could all add to the tally in the knockout play-offs so the league is one to watch.

POLAND

It will come as a surprise to many to find Poland so high up in the table, and that it was in the top two for a while. But Poland will not be here for long.

All four of the country's teams have been playing in the Conference League, while over a third of its points were picked up in the qualifying rounds.

With Legia Warsaw eliminated and no bonus points on the way from the Europa League, Poland will drop further on Thursday.

FRANCE

It has been a disappointing season for Ligue 1 teams, starting with Nice's failure to make it through Champions League qualifying.

It has not got much better from there for Nice, as they have now been eliminated from the Europa League.

Lille, Monaco and Paris St-Germain will feature in play-offs but France has become an outsider for an extra place.

GREECE

Greece still has four teams active but is a long way behind the top two slots.

However, all of its teams will play in February to boost the score.

CYPRUS

Another surprise name on the list, boosted by Pafos reaching the Champions League for the first time.

But with only two teams still active, and both in the Conference League, Cyprus is not a contender.

DENMARK

Only FC Midtjylland remain, so Denmark can be discounted too.

What are the key future dates?

Last season, the Premier League's extra place in the Champions League was confirmed on 8 April.

Such has been the high level of English clubs' performance in the top competition this season that it could come earlier this time.

Here are some key dates for the diary:

30 January: The draw takes place for the knockout play-offs of the Champions League and Europa League. The ties will be influential as points can be added to the coefficient score.

24-26 February: Knockout play-off round second legs are played for all three competitions which will result in 24 more teams being eliminated.

27 February: Draws are held to place the top eight teams in each competition into the knockout bracket. This is very important as it creates the full path and determines each league's maximum coefficient score. It sets out potential meetings of clubs from the same league, or rival leagues for an extra Champions League place.

17-19 March: Second-leg ties for the round of 16 take place in each competition, with another 24 teams knocked out.

14-16 April: Quarter-final ties are completed. It is possible that the extra places will be confirmed.

5-7 May: Semi-final second legs take place, with the finals being held at the end of the month.

How does the Premier League race for Champions League places look?

Premier League leaders Arsenal (50 points) are four points ahead of both Manchester City (46) and Aston Villa (46) – with those three teams well clear of the rest.

Manchester United (38) are currently fourth and, right now, the extra place in the Champions League would go to fifth-placed Chelsea (37).

However, there are just four points between Chelsea and 11th-placed Sunderland – so we could end up with a race for the prize of finishing fifth.

This article is the latest from BBC Sport's Ask Me Anything team.

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